Worlds Trials Day 1 Analysis

The first day of the 2025 Women’s World Team Selection Event at FlipFest in Crossville, Tennessee has concluded! The 8 gymnasts who competed were Ashlee Sullivan, Dulcy Caylor, Gabrielle Hardie, Jayla Hang, Joscelyn Roberson, Leanne Wong, Simone Rose, and Skye Blakely.

Caylor placed 1st All-Around with a 55.250 (Figure 1 below) and earned an automatic Worlds Team Spot! This is quite the surprise considering she had the 6th highest all-around coming into the competition when combining all her high scores and when combining her event average scores from the 2025 season. This all-around score is higher than her combined high all-around score of 55.117 from the last Worlds Team Pre-Selection Camp Blog Analysis. Wong's All-Around score was 55.05 for 2nd place which is a bit lower than her calculated all-around score from her event averages across the 2025 season prior to this competition. Roberson came in 3rd with a 54.90.

Figure 1: Worlds Trials Day 1 All-Around Scores

This result makes selecting the other three members quite interesting as Caylor hasn't typically been in the top two all-around or the top three for events. Let's look at how the competition went first and then address gymnast's averages and highs across the 2025 season to guess the other three members of the team prior to Day 2 and selection tomorrow October 1st.

Vault

For Vault there were several gymnasts that added a second vault compared to previous competitions. Those gymnasts that did two vaults included Wong, Roberson, Sullivan, and Hang. Both Wong and Roberson had falls on their double twisting Yurchenkos which is abnormal for both of them, but it was both of their second vaults and didn't factor into their all-around score. The gymnasts were vaulting onto a covered pit surface and I think this has a lot to do with the falls. I was a bit surprised by this choice for a World Selection, but every gymnast is landing on the same surface so I suppose it is fair. Wong had a vault average of 13.825 and Roberson had a vault average of 13.400. Sullivan had an average of 13.100 and Hang had an average of 13.750. So even with the fall Wong still won the vault title followed by Hang, but both Wong and Roberson would outscore Hang in difficulty making for a higher potential vault score at Worlds.

Uneven Bars

Figure 2: Worlds Trials Day 1 Uneven Bars Scores

For bars there were a couple gymnasts who fell, one of which was Rose who has had the 2nd highest and 2nd average bar score for the season behind Blakely. She would need to further prove her potential place on the team correcting this mistake on day 2. Sullivan had the highest bar score today with 13.95 (Figure 2 above) with her very nice full twisting double layout dismount. She also swings very naturally, but had some flight form issues on her Maloney (Toe on low to high release) and Tkatchev to Pak transition. Hang and Caylor were very close to Sullivan with a 13.90 and 13.85 respectively. Blakely had a close catch on her pak and had to really push to get a kip cast handstand after which resulted in a rhythm break and short handstand for higher deductions than usual.

Balance Beam

Figure 3: Worlds Trials Day 1 Beam Scores

For beam Roberson had the highest score of 13.6 (Figure 3 above) with a very difficult routine with a standing back tuck full and a triple series of an aerial connected to two layout step outs and a double pike dismount. The next six gymnasts were all very close to Roberson's score, all within 0.5 or less of her score. Hardie had the 2nd highest score of 13.55 with her triple series of back handspring two layout step outs and triple wolf turn. Caylor had the 3rd highest beam score of 13.4 with just a slight low leg on her L turn and a wobble breaking a connection after her aerial cartwheel. Sullivan with the fourth highest score of 13.25. She does a few unique and difficult skills such as her Arabian and Onodi. Wong suffered from a couple unusual wobbles on her series and switch ring leap compared to her near perfect routines the last couple meets. Blakely had a fall on her aerial lowering her score compared to previous competitions.

Floor Exercise

Figure 4: Worlds Trials Day 1 Floor Scores

In the last post floor was the biggest question mark for deciding on the team. Caylor and Roberson had a tie for the highest floor score with 13.75. Roberson competed a very difficult routine with a double twisting double layout and a full twisting double layout which she went out of bounds on. Caylor put up a pretty clean routine with a double layout and a unique pass with a front full through to double back directly connected to a front tuck. The 2nd highest score was a 13.4 from Sullivan with her double twisting double tuck and stuck double layout.

Average and Max Scores for 2025 Season

Figure 5: Average Scores for 2025 Season with Standard Deviation

Looking at average (Figure 5 above) and max (Figure 6 below) scores across the season for each gymnast for each event including Day 1 Worlds Trials scores we can make some guesses on who will be on the Worlds Team along with Caylor. In Figure 5 the bars represent the average score and the line represents the standard deviation - which essentially shows how spread out the gymnasts data is around the average. If the line is small the gymnast is pretty consistent, but if the line is long the gymnast is less consistent across the season. The vault scores include the gymnasts first vault, but looking at that along with the reported vault numbers above and in the Worlds Pre-Selection Blog we can make some vault predictions.

Figure 6: Max Scores for the 2025 Season

Place (High/Average)	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
First	Wong	Blakely	Blakely/Roberson	Roberson
Second	Hang	Rose/Wong	Sullivan/Wong	Sullivan/Wong
Third	Roberson	Hang/Roberson	Wong/Sullivan	Hardie

Taking into consideration the top 3 for the high scores and average scores across the 2025 season the team with the highest potential with Caylor having the automatic spot would be Wong, Blakely, and Roberson. However if we factor in average and the fluctuations in performance especially with the recency of the Worlds Selection performance this would potentially remove Blakely. It is difficult to replace Blakely with 1 gymnast who could perform well on both beam and bars... Rose performs well on bars, but not as high up there on beam and Sullivan typically performs well on beam but is not as strong on average on bars but did have the highest bar score today, and her high scores on each event are more suitable compared to Rose and she has the 2nd highest floor high. Hang is also a good option because she performs well in all-around and has a second vault. My team would still include Blakely as long as she performs well tomorrow and replacing her with Sullivan if Blakely has another off day, but it does leave room for potentially other gymnasts to creep onto the team.

Who is on your worlds team after today and the bigger question - which three will go up on each event?