USA's Olympic Team Scoring Potential

Olympic Trials has officially concluded and we now have our team consisting of Simone Biles, Jade Carey, Jordan Chiles, Sunisa Lee, and Hezly Rivera. Now let's examine these gymnasts' scores over the 2024 season and assess who will compete what events for the team and how the team might score at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games!

Who will compete in qualifications for Team USA?

All-Around

Figure 1: AA Scores for 2024 Season for USA Olympic Gymnasts

Examining the score across the 2024 season show Biles (Blue) clearly above the rest for All-Around score at every single competition so it is very likely she will be put in the All-Around on qualifications day. The rest are all right around each other despite Rivera clearly having a bad competition at US Classics this season, so the scores for each individual event will help flesh out the rest of the athletes up and the other all-around athlete that will represent team USA.

Olympic Team Qualifications

Vault: Biles

Bars: Biles

Beam: Biles

Floor: Biles

Vault

Figure 2: Vault Scores for USA Olympic Gymnasts for 2024 Season

Looking at the vault scores over the 2024 season I think there is a clear 3 that stand out as the three up for team finals on vault. Those gymnasts are Biles, Carey, and Chiles. Rivera and Lee are scoring neck and neck with each other at almost every competition with Rivera having the slight edge every time and Lee having a mishap on day 2 of championships where she seemingly was lost and took a fall. However, Lee is the reigning all-around champion and may deserve a shot at the all-around again and with the scores being so close team USA would likely use Lee in this case.

Olympic Team Qualifications

Vault: Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee/Rivera

Bars: Biles

Beam: Biles

Floor: Biles

Uneven Bars

Figure 3: Uneven Bars Scores for the USA Olympic Team for the 2024 Season

From the uneven bars scores across 2024 we can see that Biles and Chiles have scored fairly consistently with a slight decline over the season, but are still clearly in the top 3 or 4 bars workers on the USA team. Lee trended with Biles and Chiles until Olympic Trials Day 2 where she did an amazing routine with many connections she has not done in competitions prior to establish herself as the top potential uneven bars athlete. Rivera has made tremendous improvement since the start of the season and has slowly climbed to the ranks of Biles and Chiles on bars. Carey is a clear athlete to not use on this event for team USA despite being a solid score if needed.

Olympic Team Qualifications

Vault: Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee/Rivera

Bars: Biles, Lee, Chiles, Rivera

Beam: Biles

Floor: Biles

Balance Beam

Figure 4: Balance Beam Scores over 2024 Season for USA Olympic Gymnasts

Well... balance beam is balance beam and that shows here... obviously none of the athletes have been very consistent this year so this could be a point of contention for the USA gymnasts come team finals performance. Every single athlete has had a routine they have fallen on or tanked this season with Lee and Chiles being most recent for this. Looking at scoring potential Lee has the highest potential at 14.90, then Biles with a high score of 14.80, then Rivera with a 14.50, Chiles with 13.70, Carey with 13.65.

Olympic Team Qualifications

Vault: Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee/Rivera

Bars: Biles, Lee, Chiles, Rivera

Beam: Biles, Lee, Rivera, Chiles

Floor: Biles

Floor Exercise

Figure 5: Floor Scores for the USA Olympic Gymnasts during the 2024 Season

From the figure above floor is pretty clear. Biles is clearly above the rest and would be an obvious floor choice and Rivera is the bottom of the pack for the Team USA Olympic athletes and would be left out of the floor lineup for team qualifications. This leaves us with the following Olympic qualifications lineups.

Olympic Team Qualifications

Vault: Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee/Rivera

Bars: Biles, Lee, Chiles, Rivera

Beam: Biles, Lee, Rivera, Chiles

Floor: Biles, Chiles, Carey, Lee

AA: Biles, Chiles

To have another All-around potential athlete that could make all-around finals I would then put Lee up for Vault as well.

Olympic Team Qualifications

Vault: Biles, Carey, Chiles, Lee

Bars: Biles, Lee, Chiles, Rivera

Beam: Biles, Lee, Rivera, Chiles

Floor: Biles, Chiles, Carey, Lee

AA: Biles, Chiles, Lee

What could the team potentially score?

Figure 6: Event and All-Around Average Scores for the 2024 Season for each Team USA Gymnast with Standard Deviation

Figure 7: Team USA Average Scores and Standard Deviation for the 2024 Season by Event

Team Score - Averages

171.7754	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.5750	14.4450	14.3400	14.9350
Jordan Chiles	14.3000	14.3700	13.1100	13.6800
Sunisa Lee	13.3625	13.9750	14.0179	13.4300
Jade Carey	14.4792	13.3417	13.3417	13.8458
Hezly Rivera	13.8125	13.5125	13.8125	13.1708
	44.3542	42.7900	42.1704	42.4608

Team Score - Highs

176.825	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.9750	14.6500	14.8000	15.2000
Jordan Chiles	14.5000	14.5000	13.7000	14.1000
Sunisa Lee	14.1000	14.8750	14.9000	13.8500
Jade Carey	14.6750	13.6500	13.6500	14.1500
Hezly Rivera	14.2000	14.3000	14.5000	13.5500
	45.1500	44.0250	44.2000	43.4500

Team Score - Lows

164.8000	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.0000	14.2000	13.6500	14.7250
Jordan Chiles	14.1000	14.2000	12.2250	12.7500
Sunisa Lee	12.1500	11.8000	12.8250	13.0000
Jade Carey	14.2000	12.8500	12.3000	13.6000
Hezly Rivera	13.0500	12.2500	12.4500	12.3000
	43.3000	41.2500	38.9250	41.3250

Using the first three identified (the top three athletes) on each event for the qualifications team as the team final athletes would give an even lower score of 163.5000 though.

The team score could range from 163.500 at the lowest to 176.825 at the highest with an average score around 171.775. Let's see how they do in comparison once they get to Paris and hope it is enough to bring home the gold. Go Team USA!

What do you think the team or individual athletes will score?