Olympic Team using 2024 Scores - Pre-Olympic Trials

Olympic trials are this week in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Taking a look at all of the competitions that are included in the selection procedures: Winter Cup, American Classic, US Classic, and Championships, let's see how the team shakes out before heading to trials and who may need to prove their place a little more than others.

Averages

Using averages for all of the competitions in 2024 included in the selection procedure the top 5 on each event are as follows...

For the All-Around the top average score is Simone Biles at 59.75, next is Shilese Jones with a 57.65, then Skye Blakely, Jordan Chiles, and Kayla DiCello with 55.71, 55.28, and 55.04 respectively. As long as Shilese and Simone are healthy it is clear they are our all-arounders for the Olympic Games and will be included on every team for most all of the analysis to come.

Name	AA
Biles	59.75
Jones	57.65
Blakely	55.71
Chiles	55.28
DiCello	55.04

If the top 5 all-around gymnasts are selected for the team and we use their average scores this team would score 174.1208. The scores in bold represent a three up three count score for the event score included at the bottom and the score is italics is the likely 4th competing member in the prelims.

174.1208	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.4666	14.5333	14.7166	15.0333
Shilese Jones	14.3500	15.2500	14.0500	14.0000
Skye Blakely	14.4125	13.7750	14.2500	13.2750
Kayla DiCello	14.1500	13.5250	13.7375	13.6250
Jordan Chiles	14.2166	14.4333	13.2333	13.4000
	44.2291	44.2166	43.0166	42.6583

Now if we take a different strategy and build a team based on top event scores let's see if we can beat the team above. For the events the top 5 average scores for the season are in the following table.

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
15.47 - Biles	15.25 - Jones	14.72 - Biles	15.03 - Biles
14.41 - Blakely	14.53 - Biles	14.25 - Blakely	14.00 - Jones
14.40 - Carey	14.43 - Chiles	14.20 - McClain	13.98 - Lincoln
14.35 - Jones	13.97 - Thomas	14.18 - Lee	13.80 - Sumanasekera
14.22 - Chiles	13.85 - Jong	14.05 - Jones	13.71 - Carey

Taking a look at the top 2 for each event and we put those gymnasts on our team we get Simone Biles, Shilese Jones, Skye Blakely now looking at the 3rd highest for each event we have Jade Carey, Jordan Chiles, Konnor McClain, and Kaliya Lincoln. Since McClain is not invited to trials due to injury she will be removed from the discussion. The lowest of those scores is Kaliya Lincoln's floor score of 13.98. So we will also drop that score from our team. This would give a team score of 174.258 which does beat the top 5 all-around team. This team essentially replaces DiCello above with Carey using her floor and vault scores which could give rise to an event final on either event. Kayla DiCello is only a potential option for floor finals.

174.2583	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.4666	14.5333	14.7166	15.0333
Shilese Jones	14.3500	15.2500	14.0500	14.0000
Skye Blakely	14.4125	13.7750	14.2500	13.2750
Jordan Chiles	14.2166	14.4333	13.2333	13.4000
Jade Carey	14.4000	13.3500	13.2133	13.7133
	44.2791	44.2166	43.0166	42.7458

Looking at this team you might think well what if we replace Jordan Chiles with Kayla DiCello instead. Using average scores this is how they stack up against each other with DiCello winning beam and floor and Chiles winning vault and bars, but if we look with the team above DiCello's floor and beam score doesn't beat any of the top 3 scores used in a team final scenario, while Chiles' score on bars is useful in this scenario and DiCello's bar score is almost a point lower than Chiles'.

Kayla DiCello	14.1500	13.5250	13.7375	13.6250
Jordan Chiles	14.2167	14.4333	13.2333	13.4000

High Scores from the Season

Now what happens if we forgive gymnast for mistakes and use their highest scores instead of averages. Using highest scores the top 5 all-around gymnasts are Simone Biles with a 60.45 all-around using her highest scores on each event, then Skye Blakely, Shilese Jones, and Kayla DiCello with 57s, then Sunisa Lee with a 56.75.

Name	AA
Simone Biles	60.45
Skye Blakely	57.70
Shilese Jones	57.65
Kayla DiCello	57.25
Sunisa Lee	56.75

Again using this as our baseline to compare to - this team scores a 177.05. This team is the same as the above average top 5 all-around except for Lee replacing Chiles.

177.05	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.80	14.65	14.80	15.20
Skye Blakely	15.00	14.45	14.50	13.75
Shilese Jones	14.35	15.25	14.05	14.00
Kayla DiCello	14.40	14.50	14.30	14.05
Sunisa Lee	14.00	14.50	14.90	13.35
	45.20	44.40	44.20	43.25

If Chiles is put in place of Lee the team score drops to 176.55 gaining 0.1 on floor but losing 0.6 on beam.

The top 5 event gymnasts are the following for all season high scores:

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
15.8 - Biles	15.25 - Jones	14.9 - Lee	15.20 - Biles
15.0 - Blakely	14.65 - Biles	14.8 - Biles	14.10 - Chiles
14.6 - Carey	14.50 - DiCello	14.5 - Rivera	14.05 - DiCello
14.4 -DiCello	14.50 - Lee	14.5 - Blakely	14.00 - Jones
14.4 - Chiles	14.50 - Chiles	14.3 - DiCello	14.00 - Lincoln

Using the top 2 on each event to make a team which is Biles, Jones, Lee, Blakely, and Chiles we get a team score of 177.10, half a tenth higher than the top 5 all-around team since Jordan has the same highest vault and bars score as DiCello but has 0.05 better on floor.

177.10	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Simone Biles	15.80	14.65	14.80	15.20
Skye Blakely	15.00	14.45	14.50	13.75
Shilese Jones	14.35	15.25	14.05	14.00
Jordan Chiles	14.40	14.50	13.70	14.10
Sunisa Lee	14.00	14.50	14.90	13.35
	45.20	44.40	44.20	43.25

Replacing Jordan Chiles the 'last' member of the team with Carey gives a 177.00 lower than both the above teams and replacing with Rivera gives a 176.70.

Conclusion - Who is on the team?

So with those teams above it is clear that the team is shaping to be

1. Simone Biles - Likely to earn automatic spot with 60.45 / 59.75 (high/average) all-around scores.

2. Skye Blakely - Couple months ago I wasn't sure but now a clear counting score on vault. Her 15.0 best and 14.4125 average beats Carey's 14.6/14.4 and she does have two counting vaults for vault medalist potential. She also has a counting beam score on every team being 3rd for all-high and 2nd for average beam scores for the year.

3. Shilese Jones - Top scores on bars right now even above Simone so needed for event finals and also 57.65 high and average all-around.

4. Sunisa Lee - Her olympic trials performance will really tell her position on bars and beam. If she remains the top 3 on bars and beam then I think she is on the team. Her beam is already top notch with having the highest score on the event with a 14.9 and an average of 14.18 - 3rd of those eligible for Olympic team selection.

5. Kayla DiCello / Jordan Chiles - I really think the last spot might come down to these two gymnasts, but I am leaning towards DiCello because while Chiles is top 4 all-around for average scores and is top 5 for two events - vault and bars for average scores compared to DiCello who is 5th all-around and not in the top 5 for average scores on any particular event. DiCello has developed tremendously lately and her high scores out rank Chiles on every event except floor including the all-around.

6. Alternates - Dicello/Chiles, Carey, Rivera/Lincoln

Things to watch for at Olympic Trials:

1. Vault - Skye Blakely and Jade Carey for who has a higher 1st vault score and total vault score

2. Bars - Can Shilese perform to the level needed? Can Suni perform to the level needed?

3. Beam - Whether Suni can hit again to the level of championships and who is the next highest beam score after the clear team makers for a potential alternate.

4. Floor - Kayla DiCello and Jordan Chiles to solidify that third floor score after Biles and Jones if Jones can perform well after her injury.

5. Overall - Is Shilese healthy? Or is there room for another from DiCello/Chiles/Carey trio?

6. Everyone not on the list for a breakout performance knocking one of the leaders off the top 3 leaderboard - you never know!

Who is on your team and why? Who would you like to make the team but doesn't seem likely?